NCAR Oil Slick Predictions and Caveats

NCAR released a report predicting the trajectory of BP’s oil spill around Florida up the Atlantic seaboard before turning east towards Europe. BUT, NCAR’s website notes: “Peacock and her colleagues stress that the simulations are not a forecast because it is impossible to accurately predict the precise location of the oil weeks or months from now. Instead, the simulations provide an envelope of possible scenarios for the oil dispersal. The timing and course of the oil slick will be affected by regional weather conditions and the ever-changing state of the Gulf’s Loop Current—neither of which can be predicted more than a few days in advance. The dilution of the oil relative to the source will also be impacted by details such as bacterial degradation, which are not included in the simulations.”